What are the chances that Karadzic is now in Russia?

40%, in my opinion. If he is in Russia, he is probably comfortable under the sponsorship of Eduard Limonov and the National Bolshevik Party.

After being imprisoned in 2002 for smuggling arms, Limonov in Russia now enjoys greater power and a surge of support as what will be the principle Communist opposition to whoever ends up as Vladimir Putin's handpicked successor.

Limonov has comfortable villas in and around Moscow that would suit Karadzic and allow him to enjoy several fugitive years in greater comforts than Republika Srpska hamlets would allow.

Most importantly, remember the strong bond between these two men. Limonov loves his literature and poetry, including types that - like Karadzic - are heavily allegorical, snarly, and often delusional. Both are fierce Slavophiles, despite Limonov's recent inexplicable embrace of Islam and Russian Muslims.

Karadzic and Limonov have been close personal friends since meeting in Sarajevo over poetry and sniper rifles in 1995. Now, it appears that Limonov is the only best friend that Karadzic has.